Finally I have an eleven day stretch of days off. I’m going to try hard to overlook work email and calls. Futuristically the light at the end of the tunnel is brighter. The thought of not going to work in its present form rings loudly. As in running, there comes a time when the dreams fade away. Motoring around in a straight six is okay, but taking the world on in a 4 cylinder is tiresome. In both realms, the prospect of pushing out to sea seems so right.
This is the last big weekend to get any miles in before Ice Age. As much as I can’t wait to start the race the zeal to train is waning. It’s 7:20am and I’m still typing this on my phone. I want to run, but am pretty sure I’ll just trot around here for about 3 hours and maybe close to that tomorrow. At noon tomorrow, the wife and I are driving to Florida. Part of that effort is to consider permanent residence at some point. We lived there in the past. I thought we’d never go back, but it is a big state. We’ve studied and visited Arizona, but we aren’t feeling that.
Honestly the plan in my head is to thin most everything out. Toss all the crap out. I’m not a minimalist at heart, but seeing what those ahead of me have stockpiled appears to be a burden. You might not think you have much, but if you look around you do. Same for running. Get up and run an hour. Done. Maybe get a 2 hour effort in on the weekend with someone. Personally I am doing fine. We just want to start the process now. Why? Because too many people seem to wait until it appears just right. That’s a tough target to hit.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Sunday, April 14, 2019
I don’t even have a garage
Not a lot to report. Took Monday and Tuesday as zeroes. Put 3 in at 7:19 pace on the mill Wednesday and a 10k easy with the boys Thursday. Friday was another day off. Saturday was 25.2k at a good clip (for me) that was half road and trail. It was not fast, but I did feel the effort afterwards. Sunday I banked 22.7k easy at Lapham. Thirteen k of that with Ice Age legend Clement Grum. Not many fellas walking the earth with a sub 6 hour on that course! Thanks for the effort Clem.
A lower mileage week at about 41 miles, but some good hoofing in there. I’ll get a good midweek tempo in and then a longer run on Friday. Hopefully 25-30 miles down on the course. I actually may skip going down as it is a minimum 1:40 driving round trip. We are driving to Florida the next day for a badly needed full week+ get away. Time to investigate the next chapter of life a bit. We lived there before. Might go back. When you look outside now an snow is covering the ground again it gets old. Florida has a ton of stuff I don’t personally endorse, but as warm weather states go it is not the worst.
I’ll spend the last 3 weeks sharpening up and resting. I still like all this running, but I’m going to have to re-evaluate. Honestly, I don’t have the same amount of juice any longer and other aspects of life (perceived) don’t seem to get easier. Again, read anyone else’s blog who is 10 years on either side of me and it will say the same. Hoping to drop out of the rat race in the next 2-3 years.
A lower mileage week at about 41 miles, but some good hoofing in there. I’ll get a good midweek tempo in and then a longer run on Friday. Hopefully 25-30 miles down on the course. I actually may skip going down as it is a minimum 1:40 driving round trip. We are driving to Florida the next day for a badly needed full week+ get away. Time to investigate the next chapter of life a bit. We lived there before. Might go back. When you look outside now an snow is covering the ground again it gets old. Florida has a ton of stuff I don’t personally endorse, but as warm weather states go it is not the worst.
I’ll spend the last 3 weeks sharpening up and resting. I still like all this running, but I’m going to have to re-evaluate. Honestly, I don’t have the same amount of juice any longer and other aspects of life (perceived) don’t seem to get easier. Again, read anyone else’s blog who is 10 years on either side of me and it will say the same. Hoping to drop out of the rat race in the next 2-3 years.
Saturday, April 6, 2019
Built like a car
Stumbled out for a long run today. Only 5 weeks to the dance and nothing over 20 miles since John Dick in early February. I decided to run out past Lowe Lake 55 minutes and turn back. If I did that 3 times that would give me over 30 miles. I wouldn't measure it until the last circuit. Turns out it is 17.36 kilometers each trip so I put it down for 52k. That's a solid 32.3 miles so happy to get the effort in. I averaged 10:00 minutes per mile for the whole thing with splits of 1:49:31 / 1:48:25 / 1:45:05 for a total time of 5:23:01. Each segment has about 2 miles of trail, 1 mile of dirt road, and the rest is paved back road. It is a nice little route. The road section is first and last with the dirt road and trail at the far end. I would like to run on the Ice Age course, but didn't feel like investing 50 minutes driving each way.
These are my takeaways. I ran in the Sketchers I bought a couple weeks ago at a store closing sell. I like them, just not positive they have enough rear end in them for some of the rocks at Ice Age. I will have to test that out. The PF in the left foot was fine and did not notice any pain formation. It is becoming clearer that the right hip pain is probably an issue that is not going to go away. I will reevaluate my running future after my Ice Age break. I'll continue to run, but I may have to jumble things around with other activities. This pain leads to back pain as well on the right side more than likely to the compensating I do for it. It hurt, but nothing over the top. I took 200mg of Advil after the first and second segments were complete. Four+ hours later it is a steady ache. I'm hoping to get about another 10.5 miles in tomorrow, so hopefully I can start out with minimal pain tomorrow. I tried to run at a controlled even pace. I tend to feel better as time goes on. This was true today with the exception of the hip/back pain. If this can be minimized somehow it seems things would continue in a positive manner. I really felt like I could of easily ran another 5 miles, but knew that was pointless. It is more about surviving for another day at this point. Not sure if the majority of the running on the trails, with the constant gear changes and softer surfaces might be easier on the hip.
I was pleased with my ability to take down 32 ounces of liquid on each return. I would then take a 20 ounce bottle for the segment. I would not hit the water until the way back. I did not consume a lot of food. Nothing was eaten before the run. I had two 190 calorie bars, half a peanut butter sandwich, and a mountain dew 2/3rds of the way through the run. I just free wheeled it back with the water and felt fine on the last circuit. I'm not a big eater, but I also know in the real world I may have to consume about double what I did today during the 50 miler. Steady running allows for a steady burn and the food seems to digest okay when I'm not blasting. During Ice Age I tend to rely a lot on Pepsi and Mountain Dew the last 20 miles. That and a bunch of Gatorade. The first 50k is generally a time when I eat more food. The last 30k is more going by feel and finding the zone. As I age this is harder to find and also harder to stay in. My answer tends to be start more conservative every year and stretch things out.
3/31 AM = 18.6k in 2:09 at Menomonee Park with Dewey and Tim
4/1 = OFF
4/2 AM = 10.6k in 61:23 with Zeke in Eagan, MN
4/3 PM = 10k in 47:45 on the t-mill. Pretty solid tempo fartlek effort
4/4 PM = 13.4k in 1:19:34 on the roads
4/5 = OFF
4/6 = 52k in 5:23:01 up near the Emerald lot and back 3 times.
Total = 104.6k (close to 65 miles)
These are my takeaways. I ran in the Sketchers I bought a couple weeks ago at a store closing sell. I like them, just not positive they have enough rear end in them for some of the rocks at Ice Age. I will have to test that out. The PF in the left foot was fine and did not notice any pain formation. It is becoming clearer that the right hip pain is probably an issue that is not going to go away. I will reevaluate my running future after my Ice Age break. I'll continue to run, but I may have to jumble things around with other activities. This pain leads to back pain as well on the right side more than likely to the compensating I do for it. It hurt, but nothing over the top. I took 200mg of Advil after the first and second segments were complete. Four+ hours later it is a steady ache. I'm hoping to get about another 10.5 miles in tomorrow, so hopefully I can start out with minimal pain tomorrow. I tried to run at a controlled even pace. I tend to feel better as time goes on. This was true today with the exception of the hip/back pain. If this can be minimized somehow it seems things would continue in a positive manner. I really felt like I could of easily ran another 5 miles, but knew that was pointless. It is more about surviving for another day at this point. Not sure if the majority of the running on the trails, with the constant gear changes and softer surfaces might be easier on the hip.
I was pleased with my ability to take down 32 ounces of liquid on each return. I would then take a 20 ounce bottle for the segment. I would not hit the water until the way back. I did not consume a lot of food. Nothing was eaten before the run. I had two 190 calorie bars, half a peanut butter sandwich, and a mountain dew 2/3rds of the way through the run. I just free wheeled it back with the water and felt fine on the last circuit. I'm not a big eater, but I also know in the real world I may have to consume about double what I did today during the 50 miler. Steady running allows for a steady burn and the food seems to digest okay when I'm not blasting. During Ice Age I tend to rely a lot on Pepsi and Mountain Dew the last 20 miles. That and a bunch of Gatorade. The first 50k is generally a time when I eat more food. The last 30k is more going by feel and finding the zone. As I age this is harder to find and also harder to stay in. My answer tends to be start more conservative every year and stretch things out.
3/31 AM = 18.6k in 2:09 at Menomonee Park with Dewey and Tim
4/1 = OFF
4/2 AM = 10.6k in 61:23 with Zeke in Eagan, MN
4/3 PM = 10k in 47:45 on the t-mill. Pretty solid tempo fartlek effort
4/4 PM = 13.4k in 1:19:34 on the roads
4/5 = OFF
4/6 = 52k in 5:23:01 up near the Emerald lot and back 3 times.
Total = 104.6k (close to 65 miles)
Saturday, March 30, 2019
Working at the car wash
The local Village is about 2.5 miles down the road. They put up those electronic signs that flash and say how fast you are going. They work really well, AS THE LARGE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DRIVE 25 MPH OR LESS. I'm so tempted to throw the car in neutral, exit the vehicle, start bone chipping as fast as possible, crash through the window, and commander the vehicle for sanity purposes. It seems people will drive 22-23 mph, just to be safe from the long arm of the law. Honest to Hali Salasi they are just handing out drivers license now-a-days. These mph things are like gold, gold I tell you. Oh well, maybe I should just relax, but it is comical watching others power around on occasion with fanfare.
Honestly the record is 18 mph.
Ran 19.4 miles today. Really wasn't that difficult. Thinking I'll do 10+ tomorrow if I don't have to drive to Pontiac, MI for work. Then turn around and drive to MN. Everybody twist. Come on people now, smile on your brother, everybody get together, learn to love one another right now.
I don't turn the radio on often in the car. So I do on Friday am some random cheesehead calls and dedicates this Zepplin song to his wife. Then we have to hear this starry starry night story about hearts and love and meaning. That's why I generally leave it off. Play the music. Give the scores. Tell us the current weather.
3/24 = OFF
3/25 AM = 10.5k in 66:13
3/26 AM = 10.5k w/ an 8k in 38:36
3/27 PM = 17k in 1:44:34 up around Lowe Lake. Trails getting better.
3/28 PM = 11.2k in 1:17:34 at Menomonee Park w/ Dewey, Tim, Robert
3/29 = OFF
3/30 AM = 31.2k in 3:25:02. Nordic to Emma and back 1:44:53/1:40:09
Total = 80.4k (49.9 miles)
That's about the limit. 50 miles is top end. The right side back/hip is part of the limiter.
I'll try and get another decent one in tomorrow.
Honestly the record is 18 mph.
Ran 19.4 miles today. Really wasn't that difficult. Thinking I'll do 10+ tomorrow if I don't have to drive to Pontiac, MI for work. Then turn around and drive to MN. Everybody twist. Come on people now, smile on your brother, everybody get together, learn to love one another right now.
I don't turn the radio on often in the car. So I do on Friday am some random cheesehead calls and dedicates this Zepplin song to his wife. Then we have to hear this starry starry night story about hearts and love and meaning. That's why I generally leave it off. Play the music. Give the scores. Tell us the current weather.
3/24 = OFF
3/25 AM = 10.5k in 66:13
3/26 AM = 10.5k w/ an 8k in 38:36
3/27 PM = 17k in 1:44:34 up around Lowe Lake. Trails getting better.
3/28 PM = 11.2k in 1:17:34 at Menomonee Park w/ Dewey, Tim, Robert
3/29 = OFF
3/30 AM = 31.2k in 3:25:02. Nordic to Emma and back 1:44:53/1:40:09
Total = 80.4k (49.9 miles)
That's about the limit. 50 miles is top end. The right side back/hip is part of the limiter.
I'll try and get another decent one in tomorrow.
Saturday, March 23, 2019
Move it on over
One cool fall day, probably in 1977 I decided to go run for and hour and a half. It was a classic out and back out toward Amish country. There was a covered bridge that way and though it was only several miles from where I lived I hardly went that way. There was really no reason, as there was absolutely nothing except rolling farm land. Up until that time, anything approaching 45 minutes was the max run. Lately however my head was stuck in running books and magazines which mentioned longer runs. The plan was simple. Just go run 45 minutes out and turn around and come back. There was no rush. I remember getting probably 5 miles or so from home and turning back. Much to my surprise this was not as taxing as I expected it to be. It would be the starting point of incorporating distance into my runs. I ran them purely by feel and by the summer of 1978 it was not uncommon for me to run 20 miles on Saturday. Never even thought of carrying anything. There was an artesian well along the way and I'd tank up there. When I got home I'd prepare a huge pitcher of cherry Kool Aid with tons of sugar. I'd take the whole thing down. Of course much like today it did not exempt me from doing my job down at the dairy, mowing the yard or working in the garden. When we'd get together and sleep out, the guys always made fun of me for bringing an old school wind up alarm. I'd set the thing, get on my bike and peddle about 2-3 miles home with the gear and beat it down to the dairy. Good times.
Being able to still get out and run is a bonus. Eventually I'll drop the notion that some performance standard must be acquired. Why I still care is uncertain, but having figured out the internet I see other humans are in the same box. For well over a decade now I have told myself that I am going to drop down to about 35 miles a week, but concentrate on blasting out the short stuff. Have an old school track and cross country season. Of course I'd do the random long run, but lean on the side of one ultra a year. And for that it would be to just have fun and finish.
3/17 AM = 25.8k 2:41:01 roads
3/18 = OFF
3/19 = OFF
3/20 AM = 8k w/ 3.5 miles of fartlek on t--mill in 42:24
3/20 PM = 9.5k 59:07 w/ Robert on Lapham paved surfaces
3/21 PM = 9.7k 60:58 at Bugline w/ Dewey, Tim, and Robert
3/22 AM = 8k 51:33 Bugline
3/23 AM = 25.8k 2:49:57 half road and trails
Total 86.8k (Almost 54 miles)
Being able to still get out and run is a bonus. Eventually I'll drop the notion that some performance standard must be acquired. Why I still care is uncertain, but having figured out the internet I see other humans are in the same box. For well over a decade now I have told myself that I am going to drop down to about 35 miles a week, but concentrate on blasting out the short stuff. Have an old school track and cross country season. Of course I'd do the random long run, but lean on the side of one ultra a year. And for that it would be to just have fun and finish.
3/17 AM = 25.8k 2:41:01 roads
3/18 = OFF
3/19 = OFF
3/20 AM = 8k w/ 3.5 miles of fartlek on t--mill in 42:24
3/20 PM = 9.5k 59:07 w/ Robert on Lapham paved surfaces
3/21 PM = 9.7k 60:58 at Bugline w/ Dewey, Tim, and Robert
3/22 AM = 8k 51:33 Bugline
3/23 AM = 25.8k 2:49:57 half road and trails
Total 86.8k (Almost 54 miles)
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Rin Tin Tin
3/10 AM = 6k walk with the dog
3/10 PM = 10k 54:36
3/11 = OFF
3/12 PM = 12k at 7:22 per mile
3/13 PM = 11k 63:03
3/14 AM = 8k 52:05
3/15 = OFF
3/16 AM = 24.2k 2:33:40 w/ Andy. Felt like garbage
Total = 71.2k (44.2 miles)
That 12k on Tuesday felt stellar. Was happy, as it was an out the door and get it done tempo. Next day was super windy on the plains of Peru, IL, but I got a decent 11k in. Next morning I was set to do 2 mile lightning on the t-mill, but it was busted, so I ran 8k easy into the pitch at 5:30am in the 20-25 mph winds in Peru. Lack of coffee on Saturday probably enhanced the Dragnet debacle, but with Andy there it made it worth suffering. I also fell and crashed into some water at 4 miles. After a couple miles my feet started to thaw out so we kept on. We registered 15 miles, so I'll try and get near that again tomorrow.
Picked up dog crap last night after the big thaw we had. Record haul and my back was killing me from all the bending over and heavy cussing I laid out there. Another dynamic I'm recognizing is the dog (Cookie) has increased laying down in areas where you almost have to see her. Doorways, beside the bed, top, bottom, and middle landing of the steps. Right by the bathroom when you get up in the middle of the night and practically have to (or do) step on her. Not sure what the deal is, but even the wife has noticed the attention grab. I know it is spring fever to a large degree, but the see me, acknowledge me, walk me, feed me, water me, turn that TV show off is annoying, but at times comical. She'd walk 14 times a day if one had the gumption to do it. The level never goes down. The more you take her the more she wants.
I'm amazed at her zero fear of other dogs. I live out in the country, but there are about 65 homes here. Yesterday my wife says who's dogs are these? One is like a bull dog mix and the other is a mutt of the same size. I charge out the door and jump them and before I clear the threshold and unbeknownst to me Cookie blasts past me full tilt. She only has a half a head of teeth yet this if you and blastin', you ain't lastin' full tilt boogey mind set blows me away. No let up until those rouge intruders were a couple back yards away. Not sure how the dog signaling works, but I occasionally am out running/walking her (on a leash) and some dogs come out from their yard and it is no big deal. Other times they are suddenly at it and she always gets the first face punch in. Again, I try and get the dogs away, but out here people's dogs are off collar obviously because they are a quarter and half mile between spreads. She's 50 pounds wet. The wife vacuums about 5 pounds up of dog hair a week. Good times. Not sure I would get another dog, but it will feel empty here when she is not around. Just saying.
3/10 PM = 10k 54:36
3/11 = OFF
3/12 PM = 12k at 7:22 per mile
3/13 PM = 11k 63:03
3/14 AM = 8k 52:05
3/15 = OFF
3/16 AM = 24.2k 2:33:40 w/ Andy. Felt like garbage
Total = 71.2k (44.2 miles)
That 12k on Tuesday felt stellar. Was happy, as it was an out the door and get it done tempo. Next day was super windy on the plains of Peru, IL, but I got a decent 11k in. Next morning I was set to do 2 mile lightning on the t-mill, but it was busted, so I ran 8k easy into the pitch at 5:30am in the 20-25 mph winds in Peru. Lack of coffee on Saturday probably enhanced the Dragnet debacle, but with Andy there it made it worth suffering. I also fell and crashed into some water at 4 miles. After a couple miles my feet started to thaw out so we kept on. We registered 15 miles, so I'll try and get near that again tomorrow.
Picked up dog crap last night after the big thaw we had. Record haul and my back was killing me from all the bending over and heavy cussing I laid out there. Another dynamic I'm recognizing is the dog (Cookie) has increased laying down in areas where you almost have to see her. Doorways, beside the bed, top, bottom, and middle landing of the steps. Right by the bathroom when you get up in the middle of the night and practically have to (or do) step on her. Not sure what the deal is, but even the wife has noticed the attention grab. I know it is spring fever to a large degree, but the see me, acknowledge me, walk me, feed me, water me, turn that TV show off is annoying, but at times comical. She'd walk 14 times a day if one had the gumption to do it. The level never goes down. The more you take her the more she wants.
I'm amazed at her zero fear of other dogs. I live out in the country, but there are about 65 homes here. Yesterday my wife says who's dogs are these? One is like a bull dog mix and the other is a mutt of the same size. I charge out the door and jump them and before I clear the threshold and unbeknownst to me Cookie blasts past me full tilt. She only has a half a head of teeth yet this if you and blastin', you ain't lastin' full tilt boogey mind set blows me away. No let up until those rouge intruders were a couple back yards away. Not sure how the dog signaling works, but I occasionally am out running/walking her (on a leash) and some dogs come out from their yard and it is no big deal. Other times they are suddenly at it and she always gets the first face punch in. Again, I try and get the dogs away, but out here people's dogs are off collar obviously because they are a quarter and half mile between spreads. She's 50 pounds wet. The wife vacuums about 5 pounds up of dog hair a week. Good times. Not sure I would get another dog, but it will feel empty here when she is not around. Just saying.
Saturday, March 9, 2019
I'm a lazy sod
My brother and possibly my sister will be coming out from PA to watch me at Ice Age. My brother has crewed for me a number of times. It will be great to have them out. Dewey is expert crew and will be able to provide keen analysis during the run. The only downside is after 30.5 miles, the only other crew access point is 40.3 miles at Emma Carlin. From there I see you at the finish. One can park and walk to a road crossing or two, but no aid can be given. I miss the days when Horseman's was open at about 37.2 out and 43.4 back. Not so much from the crewing angle, but more for the lay of the land on where people were at. Plus it is always encouraging to have folks you know ahead.
I started watching the food intake this week and dropped 4 pounds. If I could cull off another 7-8 in 9 weeks that would be outstanding. The PF is okay, the dueling groins finally showed progress today, but the right hip is hit or miss. The right leg is about 1/2" shorter so it has always flared up now and then, but recently I'm discovering it is also leading to my lower back pain. I'm not doing a lot for it, but am stretching a bit, aspirin occasionally, substitute runs with walks, and I do try and have lifts in the right shoe.
I drive a fair amount during the week so I run scenarios through my brain on how to best strategically run the course. At the end of the day when I look back it really boils down to just going out like a normal run, take care of yourself, and if you can get past 30 miles in decent shape then have at it. If one runs 9:30 pace (with stops, etc.) that is a 7:55 finish. That just seems so possible until it isn't. Running a 9:45 pace is a 8:07:30, so a high end goal of 8:10 appears to be the outer limit. Ice Age is a very runnable course, but it can be hard to find a rhythm. Very few places to unwind. Plenty of undulating, twisting ups and downs over slight shifts in topography is the best way I can describe it. Veterans know what lies ahead and this is a big advantage. There are no giant climbs or descents, but if you decide to pound out every hill and fly down the 50 yard drops all the time it can humble you.
The biggest mistake I see is running too fast at the start, which honestly is the best running of the day. It's okay to run maybe 30 seconds a mile faster here for the first 10 miles, but the issue is you start locking into a higher caloric burn, you feel great, and I'm crushing some people here! Once you start on the single track the damn ball game is on and if you get down to the turn at 21.7 feeling waxed it will be a long day. I tell the same story every year. You run the first 9.1 mile loop and you meet a few people you keep going back and forth with. After an hour they ask what you expect to finish in. I say I'd be happy with 8:30. They typically reply, "8:30! I was think 10:00!"
Look the day is what it is. Best to amble along and enjoy the trip down to the turn at Rice Lake (21.7). For me I count how many people are ahead of me just to see how many I can catch. Again I have learned even up to a couple years ago that doesn't mean you light the match. Too far out. What starts to happen is some of the folks who have been running 9-9:30 pace start running 10-11:00 pace. You start to wind those people in. If you maintain past 30 miles some of these people are now running 12:00 pace or greater and this is how it all continues to progress. If you can still maintain low 10:00 pace you only catch people. It is rare someone else gets you from the back. When you are passing people it is a motivator. Just don't get to motivated.
3/3 AM = 9k walk (1:44:12) with the dog
3/4 PM = 4k walk (40:20) on T-mill @ 6.5 grade
3/5 PM = 10k (48:55) T-mill w/ 6 x 880 (3:18) w/ .25 jog
3/6 AM = 5k (29:40) T-mill
3/6 PM = 5k (29:40) T-mill
3/7 PM = 10k (64:39) Menomonee Park w/ Dewey, Tim and Robert
3/8 AM = 14k (1:30:24) Road and Snowmobile trail
3/9 AM = 18.1k (1:29:43) Road (windy) @ 7:58 per mile pace
Total = 75.1k (46.6 miles)
I started watching the food intake this week and dropped 4 pounds. If I could cull off another 7-8 in 9 weeks that would be outstanding. The PF is okay, the dueling groins finally showed progress today, but the right hip is hit or miss. The right leg is about 1/2" shorter so it has always flared up now and then, but recently I'm discovering it is also leading to my lower back pain. I'm not doing a lot for it, but am stretching a bit, aspirin occasionally, substitute runs with walks, and I do try and have lifts in the right shoe.
I drive a fair amount during the week so I run scenarios through my brain on how to best strategically run the course. At the end of the day when I look back it really boils down to just going out like a normal run, take care of yourself, and if you can get past 30 miles in decent shape then have at it. If one runs 9:30 pace (with stops, etc.) that is a 7:55 finish. That just seems so possible until it isn't. Running a 9:45 pace is a 8:07:30, so a high end goal of 8:10 appears to be the outer limit. Ice Age is a very runnable course, but it can be hard to find a rhythm. Very few places to unwind. Plenty of undulating, twisting ups and downs over slight shifts in topography is the best way I can describe it. Veterans know what lies ahead and this is a big advantage. There are no giant climbs or descents, but if you decide to pound out every hill and fly down the 50 yard drops all the time it can humble you.
The biggest mistake I see is running too fast at the start, which honestly is the best running of the day. It's okay to run maybe 30 seconds a mile faster here for the first 10 miles, but the issue is you start locking into a higher caloric burn, you feel great, and I'm crushing some people here! Once you start on the single track the damn ball game is on and if you get down to the turn at 21.7 feeling waxed it will be a long day. I tell the same story every year. You run the first 9.1 mile loop and you meet a few people you keep going back and forth with. After an hour they ask what you expect to finish in. I say I'd be happy with 8:30. They typically reply, "8:30! I was think 10:00!"
Look the day is what it is. Best to amble along and enjoy the trip down to the turn at Rice Lake (21.7). For me I count how many people are ahead of me just to see how many I can catch. Again I have learned even up to a couple years ago that doesn't mean you light the match. Too far out. What starts to happen is some of the folks who have been running 9-9:30 pace start running 10-11:00 pace. You start to wind those people in. If you maintain past 30 miles some of these people are now running 12:00 pace or greater and this is how it all continues to progress. If you can still maintain low 10:00 pace you only catch people. It is rare someone else gets you from the back. When you are passing people it is a motivator. Just don't get to motivated.
3/3 AM = 9k walk (1:44:12) with the dog
3/4 PM = 4k walk (40:20) on T-mill @ 6.5 grade
3/5 PM = 10k (48:55) T-mill w/ 6 x 880 (3:18) w/ .25 jog
3/6 AM = 5k (29:40) T-mill
3/6 PM = 5k (29:40) T-mill
3/7 PM = 10k (64:39) Menomonee Park w/ Dewey, Tim and Robert
3/8 AM = 14k (1:30:24) Road and Snowmobile trail
3/9 AM = 18.1k (1:29:43) Road (windy) @ 7:58 per mile pace
Total = 75.1k (46.6 miles)
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