Can you will yourself to a specific race time? What's the governor or crowbar in some cases? It seems we pick certain times based more on feeling or wishful thinking. For those who have ran for years this formula may be accurate. I know I've been guilty of thinking certain times were achievable, stated them, and then just completely failed. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Just so it's not habitual. We do need to be honest with ourselves and at the same time set the bar high. The one thing that always puzzled me about people racing the marathon was the standard, "What do you think I can run a marathon in?" Then the obligatory other info that follows. How could one honestly know? To me the marathon is one of the easier distances to predict your finish time. After 3-4 months of steady training you should know exactly what you are capable of. The whole idea of training to me is finding out exactly what pace I should be able to run over the entire distance. If you don't know that's a problem.
I wish I could write that the 31:30 goal I set for the 8k at Al's Run on 9/16 was well thought out, but it was not. I never really train for Al's, it's always on the way to another event. It is a team event for me, so there is a little bit more motivation to perform well. Also in my tiny mind as the largest race in WI, it also serves as the yearly pecking order. The run starts at 10:30am and some years gets flat out hot. I have a good sense of how to run the race. If you get out too fast that first net downhill mile and then try and maintain close to the same pace in the second net uphill mile you will pay for it. For me this is a race you have to make it up in the last half of the run. With a few thousand runners there are plenty of people to flat out race over the final couple miles.
In training you see markers along the way that identify fitness and trajectory. In many cases I have ignored basic training principles because they don't apply to me. Well...we shall see the next 7 weeks if I obey basic recovery principles, or if throwing a few extra miles here and there is more important. The past couple years I have had to cut weight. I run big for a 5' 11" and am really happy if I ever get to 172. It pains me to not eat whatever I want and I'm terrible at it. If one truly can gain 2 seconds a mile, then the drop from 174 to 165 would mean 18 seconds a mile! If that is true then the 6:47 I averaged for 6.3 miles today (GPS) means roughly 6:30 pace at 165. Factor in the drop to 4.97 miles, additional training, a taper, and the race factor then 6:20 pace almost seems certain. Can I will myself to do it? There are three items in play here. Run the workouts, put the fork down, and don't try and do too much. I feel good about the first one, am challenged by the second, and believe I can be reasonable with the third one.
I will go to counting calories starting Monday. That's what works for me. Numbers...a friend that will never leave you.
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